SENATE LATEST – AT 11:04 A.M. ET:   There's some new polling from Rasmussen that gives us grounds for guarded optimism about this fall's Senate races.  The races are critical because Republicans have a chance to retake the U.S. Senate. 

Kentucky Senate:   

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell now holds a seven-point lead over Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky’s U.S. Senate race following last week’s state party primaries.  McConnell earns 48% support to Grimes’ 41% in the latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Kentucky Voters. Five percent (5%) like some other candidate in the race, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)  The two were tied with 42% support each in late January in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the then-hypothetical race.

Kentucky has been seen as one of the two states where Republicans can lose a Senate seat, the other being Georgia.  But Mitch McConnell took the danger seriously, and is working hard to build up his support.  His effort appears to be paying off.  I suspect he'll pull this out and may turn out to be Senate majority leader

Arkansas Senate: 

Republican challenger Tom Cotton still holds a narrow lead over incumbent Democrat Mark Pryor in Arkansas’ U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide survey of Likely Arkansas Voters finds Cotton, a U.S. congressman, with 47% support to Pryor’s 43%. Four percent (4%) like some other candidate in the race, while six percent (6%) remain undecided.

Not in the bag by any means, but a better result than we've been seeing recently in Arkansas.  Tom Cotton is a superb guy, although he hasn't shown himself, thus far, to be a master of statewide campaigning.  But he learns every day.  I have confidence he can squeeze through, a pickup for Republicans.

In Georgia, where there is danger of retiring Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss being replaced by Democrat Michelle Nunn, Nunn still leads possible Republican contenders by a few points.  However, the GOP hasn't picked its candidate yet.  When that happens, and if the party can achieve reasonable unity, this can turn into a real horse race. 

Fortunately, the Republican National Committee has become more effective in the last few years, and is not content to lose like gentlemen.  The word "win" has actually entered their vocabulary.  Applause. 

May 31, 2014